If you answered 50%, you wouldn’t be as smart as 9 year old me. You see research has come out that essentially says that we all pretty much toss a coin the same way every time. So there is actually a 51% chance that the coin will turn up the same side that you initially have the coin.
But the metaphor of a coin flip for randomness remains unquestioned. We use coin tosses to settle disputes and decide outcomes because we believe they are unbiased with 50-50 odds.Yet recent research into coin flips has discovered that the laws of mechanics determine the outcome of coin tosses: The startling finding is they aren’t random. Instead, for natural flips, the chance of a coin coming up on the same side as it started is about 51 percent. Heads facing up predicts heads; tails facing up predicts tails.
Personally I noticed this phenomena as a kid and could land a coin that was tails up back to tails after a flip about 75% of the time. Naturally I used this to my advantage when doing coin tosses for playing football or other “who goes first” activity.
I would always start with tails up because more often than not when you flip a coin, people seem to always say “heads”.
Too bad I wasn’t smart enough to publish my research.